According to public market data, the explosion point of the electric ship market appeared in 2018, and in 2019, it continued to grow at an exponential rate, which is in line with the time node when my country’s lithium battery industry has made great progress. Specifically as shown in the figure below:
Construction of electric ships in the past 40 years
In addition, OFweek Lithium Grid noticed that foreign pure electric ships (lithium batteries) developed earlier, and Norway is the country with the largest number of large electric ships in the world, mainly ferries to and from island routes.
In foreign countries, it is mainly used in small luxury cruise ships, passenger ships and other ship types that require high system stability and comfort, as well as engineering ships, coastal rescue ships, etc.
In terms of the domestic market, statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2018, the total number of motor ships was 125,700, and the net weight of ships in Neihu in 2018 was 195 million tons. In 2018, the total output value of my country’s electric ship lithium battery market was 44 million, that is to say, the proportion of my country’s ship electrification in 2018 was 0.016%, and the market share was very small.
If 50% of the total number of ships in the inner lake is calculated according to the electrification ratio, the total tonnage of the electric ship market in 2018 will reach 98 million tons. Taking the unit electricity of each ship as 1.3KWh, the theoretical demand for lithium batteries for electric ships in 2018 will reach 127GWh. This is the potential market size.
According to the actual situation, the lithium-ion penetration rate of electric ships in 2020, 2022 and 2025 is calculated according to the electrification rate of 0.045%, 0.55% and 18.5%. The lithium battery market will reach 35.41GWh.
Based on the current marine lithium iron phosphate battery of 0.6 yuan/Wh, in 2025, the market size of marine batteries will reach 35.41GWh*0.6 yuan/Wh=21.24 billion yuan.